No news today. Still waiting to get through to the ward but, it being a Sunday, the phone isn’t being picked up.
Meanwhile, at this end of the line, I’ve been doing a prestigious amount of sleeping. I’m trying to catch up the sleep I’ve missed ahead of what I’m sure is going to be a busy few days. Despite everything, I’ve been trying to keep myself busy with coverage of the election.
From a writing perspective, I should hope for a Trump win. He makes it easy to write about politics. The truth is that I’m sick of him. My gut still tells me it’s a win for Biden and dare I even suggest a landslide? Yet “gut” is probably a bad way of describing this kind of instinctive judgement. After all, it’s not pure instinct. It’s more like the vibe you get after watching something for so long. Probably like farmers can smell rain or predict a drought by the way a chicken hops on one leg.
For me, the chicken hopping on one leg is the huge early vote in Texas. It has now eclipsed the total vote from 2016 and that means something big and psychological must be driving people to the polls. I might be totally missing what that impulse is, but I can only think it is disgust with Trump. I just don’t fathom how anybody but a few white supremacists could have not voted for Trump in 2016 and now think he’s their man this time around. I can’t figure out a narrative that explains this other than COVID but, then, if it was only COVID, there would be a big early vote but nothing that explains the excess votes. People who didn’t vote before must be voting now and I fail to see how it’s Republican enthusiasm.
I guess this “prediction” is the easy one, though I’ve been saying that I thought Trump would lose in 2020 for most of the past four years. Hillary was the problem in 2016 like Trump is the problem in 2020. Where I feel less comfortable is with the prospect of an elected contest.
I confess I’ve had a small detail of the election process wrong when I mentioned it in the last podcast. If the electoral college is challenged, everything heads off to Congress where the House of Representatives get to pick the president. I had (lazily, I admit) assumed that since the House is firmly in Democrat hands, they’d pick Biden. I was wrong. It might be in Democrat hands but the vote isn’t straightforward. It’s one vote per state with the side with the most representatives in that state controlling the vote. By that score, it’s the Republicans who would get to pick the President.
The Senate, meanwhile, picks the VP, which where I suppose it gets even crazier.
By this logic, we could still have Trump and Pence after January 20th having been picked by the current Congress. Yet the next Congress might well be controlled by the Democrats. So, if they chose, they could immediately impeach Trump knowing they have the votes to kick him out of office, meaning a Pence presidency…
I still think all this gets too deep into the realm of fantasy but I find it interesting. Myself, I think Trump hasn’t got the power or the support to keep himself in the White House. If Biden wins big, even Republicans won’t be that shameless to defend a losing candidate. I know there’s been many questions in the past about when their oath to the Constitution would kick in, but I think it more likely they’ll abandon Trump (some already have). Once Trump is branded a loser, he loses his voodoo.